A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
